Growing Concerns

Introduction

The 2019-20 growing season for crops is likely to meet with challenging conditions that persist from the 2018-19 growing season.  Extreme weather in the autumn of 2018 started with early cold and progressed into extreme cold in spring 2019. This extreme cold saw record snow and rain during the planting season which left the growing window being shortened.  The shortened 2019 growing period resulted in reduced yields for staple crops but also for vegetables and fruits continent wide.  

Extreme weather (hail and storm) combined with cool conditions (10 degree below Growing Degree Days) further reduced the growth and quality of soybeans, corn, and wheat.  Cold weather set in during the 2019 harvest period further lowering crop numbers and setting the stage for lowered winter crop production.  

2020 will start with the lowest winter and spring planting setting the stage for continued lowered staple crops and produce production.   Enter livestock feed issues into that setting it paints a bleak picture that could signal continued price increases and shortages.

Protein Challenges

Figure 1. African Swine Fever Occurrences over the last five years. National Pork Board, 2020, https://www.porkbusiness.com/article/global-look-african-swine-fever

Pork prices have been on a continual increase because of the worsening shortage of pork in the world.  African Swine Fever has decimated 40% of China’s Pork production which also accounts for 1/4% loss of pork production worldwide (Huang, 2020, para.2).  Pork supply has been in short supply leading to increased prices in Canada and the U.S.  

The shortage of feed has led meat producers to adopt alternative strategies in place of conventional methods.  One practice is the feeding expired pastries and dog food in place of domestic feed because of local feed prices and supply shortages (Polansek, 2019, para.1).  Another is the sourcing of feed from Venezuela, unprecedented and a first, due to shortages during the 2019 year in the states by Smithfield Porks (Worledge, 2019, para.1).

For these reasons, there is talk of a protein shortage (Gribbin, 2019, Para.1) and with the stage set for another year of lowered production number for feed, meat prices are likely to increase.  The popularity of alternative meats has led to the increased use of peas and with the current bean shortage, meats and alternatives are also likely to increase in price this year.

Growing Challenges

​Growing conditions, last year, for staple crops were challenging to be sure but produce farmers and growers have experienced reduced harvests.  
There were:

• Sugar shortages in U.S. and Canada due to lowered production of sugar beets and canes (Siegner, 2020, Point.1).
  
• Potato shortages due to lowered numbers  in both the U.S. and Canada (Lucas, 2019, para.2).
  
• Onion production lowered due to flood and wet conditions which led to India suspending exports of onions and tripling of prices (Gettleman, Manik, & Raj, 2019. para.2). Rioting in turkey over onions as well.
  
• Britain is facing a carrot shortage due to flooding and wet weather this past season (Hartley-Parkinson, 2019, paras.1-2).
  
• 2019 dry bean production was down across all three countries in North America (Pratt, 2019, para.1). Dry bean shortages appearing in the U.S.
  
• This U.S. Farmers Report detail produce trends which are U.S. centric but we source a majority of our produce from this region and prices affect us as well.  They cite a reduction in all leafy greens, red potatoes, celery, squash, zucchini, green beans, green bell peppers, round tomatoes, carrots, green onions, cauliflower, asparagus, and broccoli, essentially across the board supply on a downward trend.  This may change with seasonal varieties but essentially most vegetables are projected to have lowered production due to extreme weather (Farmer’s Report Market Trends, 2020, pg.2). 
  
• Discussion among garden growers, from across the continent, have shown many comments around reduced yields and decreased quality (Personal Communication, 2019).  For myself, I had success with smaller vegetables with shorter growing periods while larger vegetables were underdeveloped (quality) or damaged by hail. Quite possibly my worst gardening season to date.
  

Conclusion

Corn is an interesting staple crop, as it is used as feed, fuel, and food and has had a difficult time in our food systems.  The current USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) has been criticized as not being reflective of reality, where corn and bean estimates are questioned by industry experts (McGinnis, Trade Thoughts, 2020, para.5).  

​These are the trends we have witnessed in the past two years, production is declining, storage supply quantities are depleting, and consumption is increasing.  Another year like 2019-20 would see significant issues for food security, especially for vulnerable populations.  

The trends we have been observing with extreme weather and food production have not shown a stabilization, and it is likely food production will continue to face challenges.  This past year we witnessed continual incremental increases in food generally. While this number is a little above the inflation rate, the classes of foods designed to maintain or increase health are the most expensive in year.   One other troubling trend is that they are becoming unavailable.  

The food system is stressed at all levels and continual price increases are likely for everyone.  With those who are on a fixed budget or limited circumstances, it will become more difficult to access affordable quality food.  How will they adapt? How will you adapt?

References

Gettleman, J., Manik, J.A., & Raj, S. (2019, October 1).  India Isn"t Letting a Single Onion Leave the Country. New York Times.  https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/01/world/asia/india-modi-onion-prices.html

Hartley-Parkinson, R. (2019, December 4).  Britain faces carrot shortage after flooding destroys crops.  MetroNews.  https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/04/britain-faces-carrot-shortage-flooding-destroys-crops-11266019/

​Huang, Y. (2020, January 1).  Why Did One-Quarter of the World’s Pigs Die in a Year?  New York Times.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/01/opinion/china-swine-fever.html

McGinnis, M. (2020, Jan.1)  Pre-USDA Report Thoughts are Bullish, Analysts say.  Successful Farming.  https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/pre-usda-report-thoughts-are-bullish-analysts-say

Pratt, S. (2019, November 7).  Dry beans absorb major hit. The Western Producer.  https://www.producer.com/2019/11/dry-beans-absorb-major-hit/

Gribbin, C. (2019, December 12).  Meat prices rising as swine fever causes global protein shortage.  ABC Australia.  https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/meat-prices-rising-as-swine-fever-causes-global-protein-shortage/11791644

Polansek, T. (2019, August 2).  Corn is so expensive that U.S. farmers are feeding their pigs baked goods and pet food.  Financial Post.  https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/u-s-cows-and-pigs-gorge-on-bakery-rolls-pet-food-as-corn-prices-surge

Siegner, C. (2020, January 30).  Rain puts a damper on low sugar prices.  FoodDive.  https://www.fooddive.com/news/rain-puts-a-damper-on-low-sugar-prices/571352/
U.S. Foods (2020).  Farmer's Report Market Trends 01.31.2020.  https://www.usfoods.com/content/dam/usf/pdf/farmers_report/FarmersReport.pdf

Worledge, T. (2019, May 19).  China-owned, US pork producer imports corn as US pork sales to China soar.  AgriCensus.  https://www.agricensus.com/Article/China-owned-US-pork-producer-imports-corn-as-US-pork-sales-to-China-soar-6796.html
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